Sarah Harrison, Alex Macmillan (University of Otago),
Yasmine El Orfi (DESIGN & ILLUSTRATION)
Funded by Te Pūnaha Matatini.

South Dunedin is facing some big decisions about its future. It’s one of many communities across Aotearoa that’s faced with responding to the growing risk of climate change-related flooding and sea-level rise. To help with planning, it’s important to understand some of the factors that influence the community’s wellbeing and aspirations for the future.

Wellbeing in South Dunedin

This image was developed based on discussions with members of the community about what wellbeing means to them, and what would support their wellbeing.

Wellbeing Causal Loops

It’s also helpful to understand how the actions we take to respond to flooding, or to improve community wellbeing in general, might affect the other things we care about. That is, understanding the flow-on effects (or ‘cascading impacts’) of the actions we take.

Essentially, it helps to ask: “If we do this, then what? And what next after that? And after that?”

The causal loop diagram above is made up of loops which include some important community aspirations such as reducing flood risk, improving housing, supporting the local economy, and enhancing community vibrancy. Working through the loops one step at a time can help with understanding the connections between these goals and how they influence one another. This is important for making informed decisions that benefit the community as a whole.

Causal loops are used to describe situations where two or more factors influence each other in a circular way, creating ongoing cycles of cause and effect. They are helpful for thinking about how different policies or actions might have complex, interconnected consequences over time. This includes potentially unexpected or unintended consequences. Understanding these relationships is useful for informing decision-making at the community level.

What happens in the loops?

Green Urban Planning Loop

Investing in natural spaces and wetlands in South Dunedin could reduce flood risk and improve liveability, but may also increase demand for local housing. Over time, there is a risk higher demand for housing will create pressure to convert those natural spaces (or undeveloped land that could become natural spaces) into land for housing development. Careful urban planning is needed to balance the need for housing with the need to reduce flood risk by preserving and enhancing natural drainage.

Connection to Nature Loop

Enhancing natural spaces and wetland restoration would increase people’s connection to nature, support wellbeing, and be restorative for mana whenua. This would increase the sense of positivity and optimism about South Dunedin’s future, encouraging further investment in land and water restoration. However, care is needed to ensure that increasing attractiveness of the area to live in does not create pressure for natural spaces to be converted to land for housing development.

Housing Affordability Loop

House and rental prices can go up due to factors like improved housing quality, or an increased demand for local housing. Higher prices reduce affordability. If prices become too unaffordable, demand for local housing might ease off or decline over time. Interventions may be needed to ensure South Dunedin’s housing is both affordable and high quality.

Gentrification Loop

South Dunedin faces a complex challenge as it becomes more attractive to live in. Increasing desirability can lead to rising house prices, potentially triggering a cycle of gentrification. This means some current residents might no longer be able to afford to live in the area. It is essential to develop strategies that enhance South Dunedin’s liveability while also ensuring that housing is affordable and the community remains diverse.

Business Confidence Loop

When the local economy is thriving, South Dunedin feels like it has a bright future. At the same time, the more positive the area’s future feels, the more likely new businesses are to set up shop.

Wellbeing of the Local Economy Loop

The South Dunedin economy thrives when there are lots of businesses and service providers operating locally – the more money that is spent in the local economy, the more attractive the area is to new businesses. When businesses hire locally, this also helps to lift the economic wellbeing of those in the community.

Access to Goods and Services Loop

The more businesses and service providers there are in South Dunedin, the easier it is for locals to access the things they need. The more money that is spent within the local economy, the more attractive the area is to new businesses and service providers wanting to set up shop.

Community Connection and Vibrancy Loop

A strong sense of vibrancy and connection with others makes South Dunedin a great place to be. The more vibrant the area feels, the more time people spend out and about in the community. In turn, the more people that are out and about, the livelier and more vibrant South Dunedin feels.